Tuesday, June 15, 2010

The Silly NBA Finals Game Scheduling

There is a ton of commentary (mostly against) about the 2-3-2 schedule format of the NBA Finals. However, there isn't much statistical data to back up the negative opinions. For instance, see here for a summary of how the team with the home court advantage has faired in all the 2-3-2 series vs the preceding 25 years of 2-2-1-1-1 format. No significant advantages either way.

Another bugaboo I've heard is that no team has "swept" the middle 3 games. Again, hogwash. There have been 26 Finals since the NBA moved (back) to the 2-3-2 (including the 2010 NBA Finals). Here are some stats for the "host" team - the home team for the middle 3 games.

The host team has "won" the middle series (winning 2 of the 3 games*) 11 times - 42%
The host team has "lost" the middle series (winning 1 of the 3 games**) 6 times - 23%
The host team has "swept" the middle series (winning all 3 games***) 3 times - 12%
The host team has been "swept" in the middle series (losing all 3 games****) 6 times - 23%
The host team has won the NBA Finals just 5 times - 19%

* this includes the 2010 NBA Finals
** in 1993 the Phoenix Suns had home court advantage and beat the Chicago Bulls in 2 of the 3 games in Chicago. However, Chicago won all 3 games in Phoenix to win the title
*** in 1995 the Orlando Magic had home court advantage and lost in 4 games to the Houston Rockets
**** in 1989 the Detroit Pistons finished a 4 game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in LA; in 2002 the LA Lakers finished a 4 game sweep of the New Jersey Nets in East Rutherford; in 2007 the San Antonio Spurs finished a 4 game sweep of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Cleveland.

So, of the 26 series, 9 times a team has "swept" the middle games (a 3 game sweep 5 times and a 2 game sweep 4 times). We think the bigger factor is home court advantage. No matter what happens in the middle three games, the team with home court for 4 of the 7 games has won the title 20 of 25 times (soon to be 21 of 26), an amazing 80% clip. The first sweep of the middle 3 games (in the modern era) was the 1990 series when Detroit split at home and then swept Portland to take the title.

If we had the choice, we'd take 4 games at home in the NBA FInals every day of the week and twice on Saturday!

Historical note: the current 2-3-2 format is not original. In 1949, the Minneapolis Lakers won 1 of 3 games hosted by the Washington Capitols and took the title in 6 games. In 1953, the Minneapolis Lakers swept the New York Knicks on the road and won the title in 5 games. In 1954, The Minneapolis Lakers took 2 of 3 road games against the Syracuse Nationals and won in 7 games. And, in 1955, the Syracuse Nationals lost all 3 road games against the Fort Wayne Pistons but took the title in 7 games by winning all 4 home games. So, add 1 to each result above. And, keep in mind that the first "sweep" of the middle 3 games occurred in 1953!

Saturday, June 05, 2010

Best Rivalries in Pro Sports

Inspired by a post at espn.com.

Criteria - persistence over time, deep hatred between teams/fan bases, national profile, championship implications

NFL:
Dallas Cowboys - Washington Redskins (nuff said)
Green Bay Packers - Chicago Bears
Oakland Raiders - Kansas City Chiefs

MLB:
Los Angeles Dodgers - San Franciso Giants (nuff said too)
New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox
St Louis Cardinals - Chicago Cubs

NBA:
Los Angeles Lakers - Boston Celtics (nuff said again)

NHL:
Montreal Canadiens - Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins - New York Rangers

NCAAF (yes, its a pro sport):
USC Trojans - UCLA Bruins (yup, this one too)
USC Trojans - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (yup)
Michigan Wolverines - Ohio State Buckeyes
Alabama Crimson Tide - Auburn Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners - Nebraska Cornhuskers
Army - Navy
Harvard - Yale

NCAAB (so is this one):
Lousiville - Kentucky
Duke - North Carolina