The Sky Is Falling ... OR ... We're Going To The Super Bowl!

As a long-time Cowboys fan, I have wrestled with The Annual Dilemma - are we going to the Super Bowl or will we have Football Armageddon (again)...

In any event, we have ourselves a fine argument coming up. A 4th Round Pick stepping in for an injured Un-drafted Free Agent (let's not forget that). I was thinking 8-8 realistically and maybe 10-6 if some things swing the Cowboys way. Now, its 6-10 realistically and 8-8 if some things swing the Cowboys way.

So, what do I base this optimism on? (It should be pointed out that 6-10 would actually be an IMPROVEMENT from last year...) The newly installed Rookie Starter Drafted in the 4th Round .... actually doesn't look half-bad. At least, tons better than Weed-Man or Or-Ton.

Anyway, riffing on a "Hey Cowboys Fans, step back from the Window Ledge" piece from 538.com, I wanted to confirm how successful Rookie NFL QBs have been.

Rookie Opening Day Starters: 38 (since 1970)
Rookie QBs That Won 8+ Games: 12

1. Joe Ferguson for the Buffalo Bills 1973 (9-5)
2. John Elway for the Denver Broncos 1983 (9-7)
3. Kyle Boller for the Baltimore Ravens in 2003 (10-6)
4. Kyle Orton for the Chicago Bears in 2005 (11-5) ... yep, THAT Kyle Orton
5. Matt Ryan for the Atlanta Falcons in 2008 (11-5)
6. Joe Flacco for the Baltimore Ravens in 2008 (11-5)
7. Mark Sanchez for the New Jersey/York Jets in 2009 (9-7)
8. Andy Dalton for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2011 (9-7)
9. Andrew Luck for the Indianapolis Colts in 2012 (11-5)
10. Robert Griffin for the Washington R!@#$%^& in 2012 (10-6)
11. Russell Wilson for the Seattle Seahawks in 2012 (11-5)
12. Geno Smith for the New Jersey/York Jets in 2013 (8-8)

Rookie QBs That Made the Playoffs: 10

1. John Elway 1983 (lost AFC Wild Card) 
2. Kyle Boller 2003 (lost AFC Wild Card)
3. Kyle Orton 2005 (lost Divisional Playoff) ... The Or-Ton!!
4. Matt Ryan 2008 (lost NFC Wild Card)
5. Joe Flacco 2008 (lost AFC Conference Championship)  ... he actually won 2 games!
6. Mark Sanchez 2009 (lost AFC Conference Championship) ... he actually won 2 games!
7. Andy Dalton 2011 (lost AFC Wild Card)
8. Andrew Luck 2012 (lost AFC Wild Card)
9. Robert Griffin 2012 (lost NFC Wild Card)
10. Russell Wilson 2012 (lost NFC Divisional Playoff)  ... he actually won a game!

Rookie QBs That Made the Super Bowl: 0
Rookie QBs That Won the Super Bowl: 0

....well, maybe not. Can it be that the Cowboys can win a few (but not too many), convince Romo to take the money and sit in 2017, keep Witten from exploding and get some defensive help for next year? I sure hope so...cause this year aint The Year.

Best Case Scenario? 11-5 and 1+ playoff win (but with this defense??)
Worst Case Scenario? ....well, we've seen that already haven't we? (but, at least we beat the turd-skins!)

The main lesson here? Teams that start rookie QBs are not very good! Ladies and Gentlemen - your 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys Football Club!

Some interesting tidbits....

• the pace is increasing - from 1970 - 2009 just 25 teams started a rookie, from 2010 - 2015 a total of 13 teams started a rookie. Add 1 more for 2016.
• combined play-off record: 5 wins, 10 losses (55 years - 5 wins!)
• the Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts are the "winners" with 5 entries on the list
• The Tampa Bay Bucs come in a close second with 3 entries and the only "back-to-back"!