The Sky Is Falling ... OR ... We're Going To The Super Bowl!

As a long-time Cowboys fan, I have wrestled with The Annual Dilemma - are we going to the Super Bowl or will we have Football Armageddon (again)...

In any event, we have ourselves a fine argument coming up. A 4th Round Pick stepping in for an injured Un-drafted Free Agent (let's not forget that). I was thinking 8-8 realistically and maybe 10-6 if some things swing the Cowboys way. Now, its 6-10 realistically and 8-8 if some things swing the Cowboys way.

So, what do I base this optimism on? (It should be pointed out that 6-10 would actually be an IMPROVEMENT from last year...) The newly installed Rookie Starter Drafted in the 4th Round .... actually doesn't look half-bad. At least, tons better than Weed-Man or Or-Ton.

Anyway, riffing on a "Hey Cowboys Fans, step back from the Window Ledge" piece from 538.com, I wanted to confirm how successful Rookie NFL QBs have been.

Rookie Opening Day Starters: 38 (since 1970)
Rookie QBs That Won 8+ Games: 12

1. Joe Ferguson for the Buffalo Bills 1973 (9-5)
2. John Elway for the Denver Broncos 1983 (9-7)
3. Kyle Boller for the Baltimore Ravens in 2003 (10-6)
4. Kyle Orton for the Chicago Bears in 2005 (11-5) ... yep, THAT Kyle Orton
5. Matt Ryan for the Atlanta Falcons in 2008 (11-5)
6. Joe Flacco for the Baltimore Ravens in 2008 (11-5)
7. Mark Sanchez for the New Jersey/York Jets in 2009 (9-7)
8. Andy Dalton for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2011 (9-7)
9. Andrew Luck for the Indianapolis Colts in 2012 (11-5)
10. Robert Griffin for the Washington R!@#$%^& in 2012 (10-6)
11. Russell Wilson for the Seattle Seahawks in 2012 (11-5)
12. Geno Smith for the New Jersey/York Jets in 2013 (8-8)

Rookie QBs That Made the Playoffs: 10

1. John Elway 1983 (lost AFC Wild Card) 
2. Kyle Boller 2003 (lost AFC Wild Card)
3. Kyle Orton 2005 (lost Divisional Playoff) ... The Or-Ton!!
4. Matt Ryan 2008 (lost NFC Wild Card)
5. Joe Flacco 2008 (lost AFC Conference Championship)  ... he actually won 2 games!
6. Mark Sanchez 2009 (lost AFC Conference Championship) ... he actually won 2 games!
7. Andy Dalton 2011 (lost AFC Wild Card)
8. Andrew Luck 2012 (lost AFC Wild Card)
9. Robert Griffin 2012 (lost NFC Wild Card)
10. Russell Wilson 2012 (lost NFC Divisional Playoff)  ... he actually won a game!

Rookie QBs That Made the Super Bowl: 0
Rookie QBs That Won the Super Bowl: 0

....well, maybe not. Can it be that the Cowboys can win a few (but not too many), convince Romo to take the money and sit in 2017, keep Witten from exploding and get some defensive help for next year? I sure hope so...cause this year aint The Year.

Best Case Scenario? 11-5 and 1+ playoff win (but with this defense??)
Worst Case Scenario? ....well, we've seen that already haven't we? (but, at least we beat the turd-skins!)

The main lesson here? Teams that start rookie QBs are not very good! Ladies and Gentlemen - your 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys Football Club!

Some interesting tidbits....

• the pace is increasing - from 1970 - 2009 just 25 teams started a rookie, from 2010 - 2015 a total of 13 teams started a rookie. Add 1 more for 2016.
• combined play-off record: 5 wins, 10 losses (55 years - 5 wins!)
• the Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts are the "winners" with 5 entries on the list
• The Tampa Bay Bucs come in a close second with 3 entries and the only "back-to-back"!

Europa 2014

Day 1/2 fly into Scotland

Arrive, get car, drive left-handed into the Edinburgh
Drinks while waiting for room.
Sleep, then down and up the Royal Mile
The Fringe!
Eat at the hotel

Day 3 - raining in Scotland

Fire alarm at 430am!!
Get up at 2pm!
Drive to Dunning and Duncrub
Over the Firth of Forth
Rollo Park
Hotel Pub - drinking whiskey or cooking whiskey?
St Serf's
Through Bridge of Earn
Drive to St Andrews
Swilcan Bridge (or Swilcan Burn Bridge)

Day 4 - tramping Edinburgh

Wake up late (again)
Breakfast at Princes Street
Tickets for Tatoo
Some shopping - no Niketown in Edinburgh!
Scottish Whiskey Experience
A drink At World's End
A Fringe Event - "Brave and Free: Traditional Tales of Scotland"
Spa

Edinburgh Military Tatoo

Day 5 - travel day to Paris

Glad to have spent the extra quid to get EasyJet+

Mad Hatter's Wild Ride to the Hotel

Walk through Jardins des Tuileries to Seine

Walk along Seine to Eiffel Tower

Random bistro

Walk along Seine to Concorde

Obelisk and Fountains

Day 6 - tramping Paris

Walk to Louvre

Spa

Le Grand Colbert

Big Event

Day 7 - tramping Paris

Figured out the velib system

Bikes up Champs Elysee

Niketown Paris

Bikes along Seine
The Pont Neuf!

Bikes to Notre Dame

Spa (again)

Day 8 - to the coast!

Palais Versaille - uh, maybe not

Wash some clothes - where's the soap?

Long drive to Normandy Island

Check in and walk along Omaha Beach

Great dinner - two bottles of Chardonnay

Day 9 - Rouen Cathedral

Best Croquet Monsieur

Notre-Dame Rouen

Rollon

William Longsword

Random anti-Israel/pro-Palestinian demostration

Day 10 - more Castles

Bayeux Tapestry

Chateau Caen

Chateau Falaise

Day 11 - travel day to Dublin

easiest time in CDG ever - fly out mid-day Monday!

extended "sightseeing" on way to hotel

Afternoon tea

sleep

Dinner

sleep

Day 12 - Ireland...all of it!

Dublin to Cork

-English market

-Bull McCabes for the best corned beef ever

Cork to Blarney

-kissed the stone! (great castle grounds)

Blarney to Limerick

-River Shannon is pretty dirty!

Limerick to Doolin

-The Cliffs of Insanity!

Doolin to  Galway

-Corkscrew Hill

Galway to Dublin

-15 hours, 900 kilometers

Day 13 - tramping Dublin

Old Jameson Distillery

St James Gate Brewery

Temple Bar

shopping, drinking, eating, foot-stomping

Day 14 - travel to US

6 hrs in Sky Club is tooo much

started at 7am Dublin time, ended at 1am (friday) Beaverton time

The Best Ever Teams

Sustained Excellence in Professional Sports - what does this mean? How about Best Winning Percentage, Most Playoff Appearances, and Most League Titles? Without further ago, The Best Ever

Basketball (NBA/ABA) - 1947 to present: Lakers (1949)

• won/loss

1. Lakers (.620) over 63 years
2. Celtics (.595) over 65 years
3. Spurs (.584) over 44 years

• playoffs

1. Lakers (58)
2. Celtics (49)
3. Sizers (46) over 62 years

• titles

1. Celtics (17)
2. Lakers (16)
3. Bulls (6) over 45 years

source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/

Football (NFL/AFL) - 1920 to present: Cowboys (1960)

• won/loss

1. Bears (.578) over 91 years
2. Cowboys (.576) over 51 years
3. Dolphins (.572) over 45 years

• playoffs

1. Cowboys (30)
2. Giants (30) over 86 years
3. Browns (28) over 65 years

• titles (Super Bowl + League Champion)

1. Packers (13)
2. Bears (9)
3. Browns (8)

• Super Bowl Titles

1. Steelers (6) over 78 years
2. Cowboys (5)
3. 49ers (5) over 65 years

source: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/

Baseball (AL/NL) - 1876 to present: Yankees (1901)

• won/loss

1. Yankees (.568) over 110 years
2. Giants (.538) over 128 years
3. Dodgers (.524) over 127 years

• playoffs

1. Yankees (40)
2. Dodgers (22)
3. Cardinals (22) over 130 years

• titles

1. Yankees (27)
2. Cardinals (11)
3. Athletics (9) over 110 years

source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/

What's this Base Ball thingy?

Heard there was a sporting event in St Louis that might have been interesting...

NBA Finals 2011

As would be expected, I'm, at most, mildly interested in the NBA Finals this year. Really expected the C's and Lakes to square off. Ah well, maybe next year.

But, I can still root for the sub-plots - the Mo-Heat-Oh's fail to live up to the astronomical expectations they set for themselves. The (likely) repeat of the 'fall-short-and-blame-it-on-others' LeBron. (Really - 46 minutes and 8 points??) The sun-setting of a really good PG Jason Kidd. Top 5? Maybe. Here's the list.

Magic Johnson
Oscar Robertson
Bob Cousy
John Stockton
Isaiah Thomas (OW!)

Where does he fit? Top 10 for sure, edging out Steve Nash, Gary Payton, Walt Frazier, and (likely) Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Derrick Rose.

Can I swap out Isaiah for J-Kidd? I sure could right now. If Mavs win it this year, done and done!

Ciao.

(I promise to post more often)

The Silly NBA Finals Game Scheduling

There is a ton of commentary (mostly against) about the 2-3-2 schedule format of the NBA Finals. However, there isn't much statistical data to back up the negative opinions. For instance, see here for a summary of how the team with the home court advantage has faired in all the 2-3-2 series vs the preceding 25 years of 2-2-1-1-1 format. No significant advantages either way.

Another bugaboo I've heard is that no team has "swept" the middle 3 games. Again, hogwash. There have been 26 Finals since the NBA moved (back) to the 2-3-2 (including the 2010 NBA Finals). Here are some stats for the "host" team - the home team for the middle 3 games.

The host team has "won" the middle series (winning 2 of the 3 games*) 11 times - 42%
The host team has "lost" the middle series (winning 1 of the 3 games**) 6 times - 23%
The host team has "swept" the middle series (winning all 3 games***) 3 times - 12%
The host team has been "swept" in the middle series (losing all 3 games****) 6 times - 23%
The host team has won the NBA Finals just 5 times - 19%

* this includes the 2010 NBA Finals
** in 1993 the Phoenix Suns had home court advantage and beat the Chicago Bulls in 2 of the 3 games in Chicago. However, Chicago won all 3 games in Phoenix to win the title
*** in 1995 the Orlando Magic had home court advantage and lost in 4 games to the Houston Rockets
**** in 1989 the Detroit Pistons finished a 4 game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in LA; in 2002 the LA Lakers finished a 4 game sweep of the New Jersey Nets in East Rutherford; in 2007 the San Antonio Spurs finished a 4 game sweep of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Cleveland.

So, of the 26 series, 9 times a team has "swept" the middle games (a 3 game sweep 5 times and a 2 game sweep 4 times). We think the bigger factor is home court advantage. No matter what happens in the middle three games, the team with home court for 4 of the 7 games has won the title 20 of 25 times (soon to be 21 of 26), an amazing 80% clip. The first sweep of the middle 3 games (in the modern era) was the 1990 series when Detroit split at home and then swept Portland to take the title.

If we had the choice, we'd take 4 games at home in the NBA FInals every day of the week and twice on Saturday!

Historical note: the current 2-3-2 format is not original. In 1949, the Minneapolis Lakers won 1 of 3 games hosted by the Washington Capitols and took the title in 6 games. In 1953, the Minneapolis Lakers swept the New York Knicks on the road and won the title in 5 games. In 1954, The Minneapolis Lakers took 2 of 3 road games against the Syracuse Nationals and won in 7 games. And, in 1955, the Syracuse Nationals lost all 3 road games against the Fort Wayne Pistons but took the title in 7 games by winning all 4 home games. So, add 1 to each result above. And, keep in mind that the first "sweep" of the middle 3 games occurred in 1953!

Best Rivalries in Pro Sports

Inspired by a post at espn.com.

Criteria - persistence over time, deep hatred between teams/fan bases, national profile, championship implications

NFL:
Dallas Cowboys - Washington Redskins (nuff said)
Green Bay Packers - Chicago Bears
Oakland Raiders - Kansas City Chiefs

MLB:
Los Angeles Dodgers - San Franciso Giants (nuff said too)
New York Yankees - Boston Red Sox
St Louis Cardinals - Chicago Cubs

NBA:
Los Angeles Lakers - Boston Celtics (nuff said again)

NHL:
Montreal Canadiens - Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins - New York Rangers

NCAAF (yes, its a pro sport):
USC Trojans - UCLA Bruins (yup, this one too)
USC Trojans - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (yup)
Michigan Wolverines - Ohio State Buckeyes
Alabama Crimson Tide - Auburn Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners - Nebraska Cornhuskers
Army - Navy
Harvard - Yale

NCAAB (so is this one):
Lousiville - Kentucky
Duke - North Carolina