NBA Finals - Preview

Not sure if its the 2 cups of coffee, but I'm buzzing right now. Oh, wait. Its the NBA FINALS BABY! Its going to be a great Series and I'll be blogging one Lakers fan's viewpoint throughout.

For now, my thoughts (like you care THAT much) on the matchups...

PG - DFish vs Skip to my Lou - Advantage: even. Fish is slowing down but has the wiles and gumption to get even on this matchup. Skip has the wheels but I'm not sure how he handles the pressure and with Jameer Nelson in the wings, it can't be good. Backup note: Farmer/Brown kill anything that Johnson brings. I'm really hoping Shannon Brown can take it to the next level - he has a GREAT toolset for the triple post.

SG - Mamba vs Some Rookie - Advantage: no contest. Just to make it a little less lopsided, let's combine Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus and call him Mickney Leetrus. There is no reasonable scenario where Mickney hangs with Kobe. The stats are not THAT off (except pts) - 17.8|5.6|2.4|1.56 vs 26.8|5.2|4.9|1.46. But, Kobe commands dbl/tpl teams the entire time and Leetrus will be ignored a LOT. If you get wide open corner 3s the ENTIRE game, you better be able to notch 15+ a game. Guarding LBJ is tough. But if you think about it, LBJ's actually a bit predictable. Either he runs headlong to the rim or dishes to a teammate at first sign of trouble. Mamba don't run that way. He doesn't let you off the hook after the first move. Poor Mickney Leetrus is in for a LONG series.

SF - Ariza vs MJofT - Advantage: (slim) to Orlando. Hedo has the ball a TON but takes a LOT of late shots. Ariza has covered a couple bigger heavier guys. This will seem like a vacation for him. And if Ariza continues his torrid shooting, this matchup easily swings the other way.

PF - Pau vs Shard - Advantage: (big) to Los Angeles. Lewis will get lots of open looks from deep. But, he will get absolutely killed on defense. I can easily see Lewis averaging 18-20 ppg and Gasol getting 26-28 ppg and tons of assists on the drop pass to Bynum after Howard comes to help.

C - Bynum vs Superman - Advantage: (not as big as it seems) to Orlando. Bynum has the length and size to play Superman one-on-one. This will (hopefully) limit the touches/shots Howard gets. If Bynum commits himself to D and R (help us out here @kaj33), then this Series is over quick. If he doesn't, then Dwight goes nuts and Lakers have to roll a dbl to him - not good. We'll see how well the new D handles a serious post threat.

X - LO vs Nelson (I guess) - Advantage: Lakers. The Lake Show gets BIGGER and LONGER when they sub. I could easily see Odom subbing for Ariza first to get 3 bigs against the Magic top group. But, either way, Lamar should be able to abuse Lewis even more than Pau will. I had to use Pietrus to get the SG position in the ballpark. What else does Orlando bring? The Nelson question will be big and distracting - will he/wont he play... - this can't be good for a young team on the big stage for the first time.

Coaches - Zen vs Panic - Advantage: no contest. Granted SVG is a good Xs/Os guy. But, at this point of the season, it's about execution and energy. That's why Zen has 10 rings (and counting). Any good college or HS coach could have figured out the Cavs over a best of 7. This is Bright Lights time and I expect SVG is not so good this figuring out a (real) offense.

Intangibles - M(otivation) HUGE advantage for Lakers; E(xperience) HUGE advantage for Lakers; (lack of) R(espect) advantage for Magic; H(ome) C(ourt) advantage for Lakers.

Orlando...
Championships: 0
Last Championship: Never won title
Last Season: Lost in Eastern Conference semifinals

Los Angeles...
Championships: 14 (5 as Minneapolis Lakers)
Last Championship: 2002
Last Season: Lost in NBA Finals

I'm still expecting a long series. But, ultimately Lakers prevail. Unlike any other sport, the NBA requires getting close and failing before a team can win it all. This Lakers team had that hurdle last year. The motivation to atone for last year will trump the "we have nothing to lose" freeness the Magic will bring. Lakers close it at home in 6 games.

Ciao